Several experts have otherwise emphasized that summer may be able to inhibit the infection.
n its risk assessment , the National Board of Health has defined two scenarios:
In one, the coronavirus is inhibited by summer. In the second, it does not happen.
The authorities are getting ready for the last scenario, says Kåre Mølbak, professional director of the Norwegian State Serum Institute.
In the cooperation we have with the National Board of Health and the regions, we now expect a full epidemic to be on the safe side, he says to Detector.
Full epidemic – maybe into June
It has been pointed out several times that summer may inhibit the coronavirus.
Our behavior is different in the summer. We are more out and we are not so close together in the summer, and then the virus does not thrive as well in the summer, said Bolette Søgaard’s chief medical officer, for example, earlier this month to Politiken .
And to Dr.dk , Else Smith’s specialist in social medicine recently said:
It is most likely that we will have a break this summer – judging from knowledge of other epidemics with respiratory viruses and knowledge of other coronaviruses. So it will be most likely with a break.
It may still turn out to be right. But in fact, the Danish authorities are now preparing for the opposite scenario, where the virus has no ‘seasonal variation’ as it is called.
According to the Director of the Danish Serum Institute Kåre Mølbak, the Director of Detective:
– There are seasonal variations in the normal coronaviruses that cause colds, but it may not apply to Covid-19. And at least we’ve seen outbreaks in countries with a relatively warm climate.
The Danish authorities expect between 10 and 15 percent of Danes to become infected with coronavirus during an epidemic until May or perhaps even in June, says Kåre Mølbak.
Authorities estimate that between 0.3 and 1 percent of infected Danes die. That equates to between 1,680 and 5,600 people if 10 percent of the population is infected.
We have to assume that there will be a full epidemic now, which is roughly similar to the Northern Italian conditions.
It’s about how the regions should plan with staff and respirators, says Kåre Mølbak.
In Norway, too, you are preparing for the main outbreak to occur during the summer, you can read in the Norwegian risk assessment.
We have based on an estimate of where the main outbreak will come this summer, but again: How it will actually be, we cannot say anything for sure, writes Siri Hauge, chief medical officer at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Norway.
More waves in the future
Although we have a full epidemic now, authorities still expect the coronavirus to return later in smaller waves.
It is actually possible that up to 60 percent will be infected. But it is over a longer period of maybe three to four years. And then there will almost be a balance between virus infection and population immunity, says Kåre Mølbak.
If the coronavirus actually turns out to be due to summer, in turn, it is expected that a greater wave of infection will occur in the fall. This is because in that case, fewer Danes will have become immune to the first wave of infection.
If we get a small wave now, which stops because of the good weather, then I expect the autumn wave to set earlier – maybe already in October or November, says Kåre Mølbak.
What’s worst: That we get a full epidemic now or a bigger second wave due to summer?
I dare not say that. There we need to know more about the virus.